ACUS11 KWNS 300423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300423=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota...northeastern South
Dakota...west central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...

Valid 300423Z - 300630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with strong to
occasionally severe wind gusts likely will be maintained at least
into the 1-2 AM CDT time frame, before beginning to weaken.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of storms is maintaining
organization, with a modest surface cold pool including 2 hourly
pressure rises around 2 mb and a still relatively well-defined MCV
progressing eastward to the southeast of Jamestown. Eastward
propagation of the cold pool has been around 35-40 kt, resulting in
strong easterly inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by
CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg. As the gust front passes east of
the Minnesota state border between Ortonville MN and Fargo ND by
around 0530Z, inflow may begin to become less moist and unstable,
and more substantive weakening trends may ensue. Until then,
though, strong to occasionally severe gusts probably will be
maintained.

..Kerr.. 07/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5loOJpylY8aO3hYR9bRAeDcyUmWicqcdQ0THhjPpdlBE8LbSSOnBxdqc0bVZnhkZs0YrTGms= L3WkeOQPeG4nUK2YOU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 46519768 46739696 46789610 46489535 45089571 45149645
45419715 45639764 46089756 46519768=20


=3D =3D =3D
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