ACUS11 KWNS 300056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300056=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern South Dakota...northeastern Nebraska...and western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 300056Z - 300300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms currently over south-central South
Dakota should continue tracking southeastward across northeastern
Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, and western Iowa tonight.
Scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch
may be needed for parts of the area within the hour or so.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster with a history of
producing severe wind gusts over south-central SD (recently measured
84 mph gust in Tripp County, SD) is merging with other severe storms
in its immediate vicinity. This trend of upscale growth may continue
over the next few hours, as these storms continue tracking
southeastward amid a gradually strengthening low-level jet. Ahead of
the storms, a northwest/southeast corridor of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE
is in place, as well as 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented
perpendicular to the evolving/upscale-growing cold pool. These
factors should support the maintenance or intensification of an
upscale-growing cluster of severe storms, capable of producing
scattered severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) and instances of large hail.
While generally weak large-scale ascent casts some uncertainty on
this scenario (especially with southeastward extent), the overall
setup seems to likely warrant a watch for parts of the area within
the hour or so.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47mgF6Ne-JJcags5tGFr0S-bMo8dLauliFUcmUiGCKDTaiGkZ-jCBpfNXK8HXKRpsNblt6aG7= obXUYyMMhCNxYHBECU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON 42639875 43109861 43689822 43769783 43669721 43089596
42479502 41999490 41169549 41069600 41359706 41979833
42269869 42639875=20


=3D =3D =3D
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