ACUS11 KWNS 291910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291909=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama to central Georgia and the
Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291909Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will continue to spread across
portions of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas through the
afternoon hours. A few stronger to severe thunderstorms are possible
and will mainly pose a damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites across AL, GA, and SC
show widespread thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into
the mid to upper 80s (and even low 90s in some locations) within a
very moist environment (mid to upper 70s dewpoints), resulting in
the erosion of any lingering SBCIN. Recent RAP mesoanalysis
estimates suggests that portions of southeast AL into southwest and
central GA currently have the more conducive environment for strong
to severe thunderstorms with MLLCLs between 1-2 km, theta-e deficits
above 30 K, and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Very weak
mid/upper-level flow will continue to favor pulse cellular
convection and multi-cell clusters with relatively short longevity.
However, these thermodynamic conditions should be favorable for
strong downburst winds that may reach 50-60 mph.=20

To the northeast across northeast GA and SC, more linear convection
has developed along a residual outflow boundary with consolidating
cold pools noted in regional velocity data. While the thermodynamic
environment is not currently as favorable for strong/severe
downbursts as further southwest, continued daytime heating should
gradually improve low-level lapse rates through mid/late afternoon,
resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat. However, given the
poor deep-layer wind shear, the overall severity of these
lines/clusters will remain limited and precludes watch issuance.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Dm7s3yDUnA5qAf-y-2sOHZCKRODneYVLBR5xBZDXil6lKV2BtQDyirgGro80oSow1n0clODs= j1k4naA2vxNBLtaSYs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31128345 30868398 30838441 30928509 31138561 31458605
31818629 32358625 32808606 33078548 33208494 33298450
33378411 33758351 34138295 34828222 35168178 35318125
35198063 34948037 34518034 33898063 33208125 32588167
32188213 31838256 31578291 31308323 31128345=20


=3D =3D =3D
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