ACUS11 KWNS 222050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat is increasing across
portions of northeastern NC and far southeastern VA. A brief tornado
also cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
beginning to merge across northeastern NC. Additional thunderstorms
were also developing along a differential heating boundary near the
far eastern NC/VA border. These storms are an environment
characterized by a moderately buoyant airmass and modest deep layer
effective shear, under a belt of relatively stronger mid to upper
level southwesterly flow. Continued cell mergers over the next 1-2
hours will have the opportunity to produce damaging wind gusts. In
addition, slowly increasing low-level flow may result in a localized
increase of helicity near the aforementioned boundary through early
this evening, and thunderstorms exhibiting more supercell like
structures may have the opportunity to produce a brief tornado
before the onset of nocturnal stabilization. Given the very
localized nature of the severe threat, however, a WW is not
anticipated at this time.

..Barnes/Smith.. 07/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4yHvhgR23QgsvNX1SRTqmesUgt7VJpILfESOHj44rREdACMLyFmaGOJqDCmZUX1DIuhDQ-ACN= 17SkkB9dq1G8KLx1VM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 37247578 37057582 36667583 36217580 35957610 35757710
35757774 35767836 35817868 36537821 36967772 37297746
37357674 37317619 37247578=20


=3D =3D =3D
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