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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1692

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 21 22:21:30 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 212221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212220=20
    AZZ000-212345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1692
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0520 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

    Areas affected...portions of south-central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558...

    Valid 212220Z - 212345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over higher terrain could move
    south and will remain capable of damaging gusts this afternoon and
    into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms have
    developed across the higher terrain of central AZ this afternoon.
    Despite only modest deep-layer shear profiles, large inverted-v
    thermodynamic profiles have allowed strong downdrafts to develop.
    These high-based storms have already produced several measured
    severe gusts within the higher terrain. While the initial cores have
    moved little and begun to weaken, outflow has moved south/southwest
    ahead of the initial convection evident in regional surface obs.
    Damaging gusts will remain possible as the outflow moves into the
    north/east sides of the Phoenix Metro in the next 1-2 hours.
    Additional storm development will remain possible along/ahead of the
    outflow as it encounters upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints and
    moderate buoyancy in the lower elevations. Confidence in the exact
    convective evolution is somewhat low owing to modest flow aloft and
    chaotic storm interactions, but any storms able to move off the
    terrain with surging outflow will remain capable of damaging gusts
    into this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 07/21/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ggPVntuZGZHNYyNP09mGRIge_2HeK5hMmQfrAbs7QUf59nMR52qFkdLK6HUscKCpeCR8MWsL= IxEv4dmbEE928Fmu5w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 33020998 32760987 32710993 32521017 32491052 32541209
    32551218 32681324 33451332 34311348 35131332 34211171
    33581066 33211015 33020998=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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