ACUS11 KWNS 152051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152050=20
AZZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152050Z - 152315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening across portions of southeastern
Arizona. The primary severe weather threat is expected to be
damaging downburst thunderstorm winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over terrain-favored
locations in southeastern Arizona over the past hour. These storms
are developing in a modestly unstable environment (MLCAPE of ~1000
J/kg) with deeply mixed boundary layers. Easterly midlevel flow is
expected to slightly increase this evening (~20 knots), which may
help storms propagate westward off the higher terrain. These storms
will primarily pose an isolated threat of damaging downburst winds.

..Jirak/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pP5dj-wKTN9n8YKJWhwObRYwP68pnOUcjoopcViw53rUp091C76CBZCg1w59HGXLq3fIaSfl= i4Y6Efs0H-FjfkhGFI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31331107 31521151 32461139 33181113 33851082 34111032
33840967 33350940 32440927 31730913 31330906 31321105
31331107=20


=3D =3D =3D
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