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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 15 20:07:08 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 152007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152006=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-152200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...and the
    Michigan Upper Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152006Z - 152200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...As a cold front moves out of Minnesota, into Northwest
    Wisconsin, and eventually into the Upper Peninsula, thunderstorm
    coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon and
    evening. While these storms will be capable of producing some
    damaging wind gusts and perhaps some 1.00 inch hail, watch issuance
    is not expected at this time given the isolated nature of severe
    occurrence.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing within a modestly
    unstable airmass across the Upper Peninsula/Northern Wisconsin into
    Eastern Minnesota. Thunderstorm activity will increase as a cold
    front moves southeastward out of Minnesota into Wisconsin, and deep
    layer shear magnitudes of 35-40 kts will support at least some
    isolated severe convection. Given relatively straight-line forecast
    hodographs and thin buoyancy profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts
    and hail are the primary hazards expected with any mature multicell
    clusters that develop.

    ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rf3DHn1K8dUMlIZMuoDcqlG6_n6QZeBab6d56EVNl2jFkkkraFdYkgiVkun2QP-Na9tpKTcf= eS8Vm-LYB5xfcTCqAk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46919302 47429190 47589132 47979056 47968996 47568913
    47228862 46488829 45898821 45298854 45398935 45469092
    45459252 45839293 46529331 46919302=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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