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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1604

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 14 01:54:14 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 140154
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140153=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-140400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1604
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana into western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

    Valid 140153Z - 140400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance into western South Dakota will
    likely be needed in near future as a cluster of severe thunderstorms
    continues to organize across southeast Montana.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a pair of
    semi-discrete supercells migrating across southeastern MT. This
    cluster has recently produced wind damage in Miles City, MT,
    including a 72 mph measured wind gust. Velocity data from KGGW and
    KBLX continue to show well pronounced mid-level mesocyclones, but
    gradual upscale growth remains anticipated as these cells approach
    the western Dakotas. Storm track trends over the past 30 minutes
    show this cluster beginning to track more southeasterly as it
    encounters a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MT into
    west-central SD. Continued propagation along this gradient appears
    likely with a gradual increase in severe wind potential still
    anticipated. Storm track timing estimates based on the recently
    observed motion, as well as HRRR timing forecasts, suggest this
    cluster should reach the SD border between 03-04 UTC, so downstream
    watch issuance into SD will likely be needed prior to that time.

    ..Moore.. 07/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5coo0IoqL1ZVqMPUuFe6xrrFu6bWdrH72eIAvWvt6fuWLLfGsUNVFLGZuEwLH4IVet9QLUKKA= KCn4VmH9UOiFKBWOww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 45610585 45860597 46090595 46350573 46460544 46540517
    46560492 46540450 45600151 45310115 45020099 44690102
    44370121 44050144 43770191 43610233 43550279 43590317
    43710341 44110398 45610585=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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