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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1600

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 13 22:41:40 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 132241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132241=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-140045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1600
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

    Areas affected...Northern to eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...

    Valid 132241Z - 140045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary severe threat for the
    short-term across north-central Montana, but a transition into a
    more organized cluster/linear segment may occur within the next 1-2
    hours. This would support an increasing wind threat downstream
    across eastern Montana.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a leading supercell across
    north-central MT continues to show strong deviant motion to the
    south/southeast and has a history of producing severe hail (1.0 to
    1.75 inch) per recent storm reports. For the next 30-60 minutes,
    this cell should continue to pose a risk for large to very large
    hail given a very favorable supercell environment. Radar and
    satellite trends over the past 30 minutes show increasing cumulus
    congestus and new cell development in the vicinity of the supercell
    - likely a result of strengthening ascent in close proximity to the
    supercell and its robust pressure perturbation responsible for the
    strong deviant motion. As new cells develop, cold pools will
    amalgamate leading to gradual upscale growth, likely within the next
    1-2 hours. Evolution into an organized line appears probable given
    strong (nearly 50 knots) deep-layer wind shear nearly parallel to
    the diffuse frontal boundary. Consequently, the threat for severe
    wind should increase in the coming hours downstream. Based on the
    current position of the frontal boundary, the severe threat should
    mostly remain in WW 522, but additional watch issuance may be needed
    across southeast MT in the coming hours if it becomes apparent
    convection will maintain a more southeasterly track.

    ..Moore.. 07/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aia5E5cvDvVKMUkdakalkwMH2mH-3DOlWyRmGzB1qWVK5haUnvkDh0FoTsvpJEHfAhTAVKT-= Ludp2nK--jwRpSSOrU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47270869 47990950 48350973 48670981 48950966 48990944
    48750863 48570771 48080476 47610416 47180401 46310404
    46130419 46000443 45910468 45870500 45880530 46010583
    46270675 46600754 47270869=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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