ACUS11 KWNS 081834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081833=20
COZ000-NMZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...North-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081833Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind
gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward. A watch
is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints have help in the upper 40s to low 50s
F in north-central New Mexico. With very modest mid-level ascent
along the base of the departing upper-level trough, a few storms
have deepened early this afternoon within the terrain. Effective
shear of 30-35 kts will promote some storm organization. Much of the
shear is concentrated in the lowest 6 km with fairly minimal shear
above that level. Despite steep mid-level lapse rates, hail size
should be tempered by this less favorable wind profile. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong/severe wind gusts
as well. Cloud cover and drier air moving into the northeastern
plains will likely limit how far southeast this activity will
progress this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SaZDoYGW6gmSlfXNRms0ZJGYJnv8NiSKWJRhYZYYE335-j0ku5aKWcNxnhUsUCdcBo3cEBh4= cJwCxJasEKMuJWkohc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON 36490707 37090644 37160462 36280416 35270446 34780531
34750575 34950626 35710695 36490707=20


=3D =3D =3D
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