ACUS11 KWNS 291603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291603=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Areas affected...Portions of OH...northern WV...and western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291603Z - 291800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. Damaging gusts will be the main
hazard with this activity, though a tornado or two also may occur.
Timing of watch issuance is uncertain, but area is being monitored
for watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has been slowly increasing along
the leading edge of an area showers left over from overnight/early
morning convection moving into northern/central OH. Rich
boundary-layer moisture is in place, with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F noted in morning observations. Widespread
cloudiness is limiting heating, and temperatures are generally in
the upper 70s to near 80F. With time, pockets of stronger
destabilization are expected into afternoon, with downstream
destabilization expected into parts of northern VA/western PA by
early to mid-afternoon. However, cloud cover and poor lapse rates
may limit more widespread stronger instability. Nevertheless,
vertical shear will be sufficient for transient supercells and bands
of bowing segments. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with
convection through the afternoon and into early evening. While
low-level shear will remain somewhat weak, vertically veering
profiles will result in somewhat enlarge and curved low-level
hodographs suitable for a tornado or two in addition to damaging
gust potential.=20

Additional convection is possible into the evening hours as the
synoptic cold front (currently over northern IL) shifts
east/southeast across the area. As a result, multiple bands/rounds
of strong/severe storms are possible. Timing of watch issuance is a
bit uncertain, but the trends will continue to be monitored for
possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7vqRgLZEvhTDh7KbpPZwRMJ2-Wz9UiSNRcaVb6mGBQXEPzfkQ4MeZJm7AjIiwslJF-u3Bcqjx= 2rSdRP2fXacQSiKUWo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41278264 41878081 41928056 41967926 41517853 40617868
39917902 39337972 38968070 38818244 38858341 39028427
39228444 39518458 39848475 40438406 41108291 41278264=20


=3D =3D =3D
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