ACUS11 KWNS 280111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280111=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-280245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 280111Z - 280245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with a history of several severe gusts
(some of which were measured in the 80-90 mph range per surface
observations) continues across western ND/SD. The most recent significant-severe gusts have occurred within mesovortices across
southwestern ND, where a QLCS tornado also remains possible.
However, 00Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates rapidly
decreasing over ND with east extent, but with 6 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates present over a wider corridor in SD. As such, severe gust
potential (including peak 75-85 mph gusts) will be greatest over
southern ND into northern SD for at least a few more hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6fKVDbs2ibYnQSTF8Ae8hXqnAd-DRdLB259I0D2jW6yXDTWD6Qi_f5BqyznfliFnaRqopRk5_= o0V6-Jvzzrt_mt4_Q0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43880095 46560203 48050262 48430262 48500119 47920019
46599945 45239914 44329928 43799998 43880095=20


=3D =3D =3D
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