ACUS11 KWNS 262003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262002=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and
southeast New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262002Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail may occur
this afternoon, with a greater potential for more widespread
thunderstorms this evening.

DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize south of an
east-west oriented boundary from the PA/NY border eastward into
southern New England. Visible satellite shows increase CU fields,
with a few thunderstorms now extending from south-central PA into
northern VA.

As the main upper wave continues east, storms over northern PA along
the front may organize further with damaging winds over much of
northern PA possible. Isolated activity over southern PA has outflow
associated with it currently, and this may support further
development across the remainder of southeast PA, and eventually
into NJ and southern NY. As such, the area is being monitored for
further intensification or increase in coverage of the existing
activity, and another watch may be considered over the next few
hours south and/or east of WW 464.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5gDL2rAfaKCtxAK3cohcQzFhoqF0FtTH-4GSAzJFxe8lsYl2swxS5BX14q09Z9q3bhqL_P0Ao= 94wZAQD75Nm6lTsVuM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41417357 40707373 40187391 39797430 39357547 39107644
39237695 39457753 39777792 40337813 40657816 40837792
41337580 41717426 41677375 41417357=20


=3D =3D =3D
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