ACUS11 KWNS 212154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212153=20
AZZ000-212330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212153Z - 212330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe winds are
possible in parts of southeastern Arizona.

DISCUSSION...A tropical moisture plume within the Southwest (PWAT
values greater than 1 in. per GPS TPW in southeast Arizona)
continues to foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.
Shear is relatively weak per regional VAD data, and strong heating
has been somewhat muted by high-level cloud cover. Even so, temperature-dewpoint spreads are sufficient to support a few strong
to severe wind gusts. With higher than average moisture content,
enough storm coverage may exist for a cluster to two to develop.
Should this occur, a locally greater wind threat would exist with
those clusters. Storm coverage into the western portions of the
Phoenix metro is fairly uncertain, but outflow could try and push
westward into a much more well-mixed boundary layer (temperatures in
excess of 110 F) and produce strong winds.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ijpI9P7mEQFRUQbRu4sQet8lboo5Ay82UMcpyOV4sNH2gVyP5uRsbLJnFQJqkXkAWyaFX9l6= LzAuMLEReD31Vh23x0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31641073 32521129 33181163 33771178 34111143 34141078
33800978 33380920 32300911 31530913 31330986 31351053
31641073=20


=3D =3D =3D
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