ACUS11 KWNS 201844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201843=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201843Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Eastern WY into W NE and SW SD are being considered for a
WW this afternoon, as thunderstorms develop on the higher terrain
and move east into substantial buoyancy and deep layer shear
supportive of large hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the last hour
as convective temperatures have been reached over the higher
terrain. This activity is expected to progress eastward into the
richer moisture and MLCAPE > 1500 J/kg, underneath deep layer shear
of 35-45 kts.

Given the buoyancy and shear, a few supercells capable of 2-inch
hail and 70 MPH winds are expected across the highlighted area this
afternoon. The threat for tornadoes remains low due to high MLLCL
heights, though a supercell encountering easterly surface winds in E
WY and W NE could produce a brief tornado. Given the environment and
storm coverage, WW issuance is anticipated by 19-20Z.

..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 06/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5zBkCTOj4B5_kryvxVptnvQgNlka_9X4-pNC4AIfMQyYSEVdqkjM1LT1yjz3XcDXS08D4u0nT= E046nkoh0ilBOP3CPg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41490607 41970602 42590561 43250408 43390316 43470214
43440103 43400043 43040020 42620016 42110013 41650032
41160106 40900214 40900308 40900483 41010589 41490607=20


=3D =3D =3D
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