ACUS11 KWNS 112054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112053=20
TXZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country...Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112053Z - 112330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few of storms may become strong enough to briefly
produce hail and/or damaging gusts from the Permian Basin into the
Texas Hill Country this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined outflow
boundary just ahead of the showers and thunderstorms over central
TX. Convergence along the western portion of the boundary likely
contributed to the initiation of the robust thunderstorm over
Schleicher County TX. The airmass downstream of this outflow is
moist, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, but warm
temperatures aloft are mitigating the overall buoyancy. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear
is modest as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear
is currently around 30 kt. Even so, persistent low-level convergence
along the outflow boundary, particularly the western portion of the
boundary, will likely lead to the development of additional
thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong enough to
briefly produce hail and/or damaging gusts. Isolated coverage and
limited intensity and duration is anticipated, precluding the need
for a watch.

..Mosier/Smith.. 06/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-xByqm6cMGNll-hj7GRfhoT_dEC3pa9j40pOQfXV6nVnZxyG1C-8UKJfi7z-x-g6QMZhSP_sn= nr-LoVppCJkBUrlj4Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29460104 29730137 29930197 30720212 31000140 30490009
30189895 30279799 29489774 29019825 28719899 28809980
28970032 29460104=20


=3D =3D =3D
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