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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1184

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 6 20:03:56 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 062003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062003=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-062130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1184
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

    Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into South Carolina
    and North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062003Z - 062130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few 45-60 mph gusts may occur with the stronger storms
    that can materialize this afternoon. The severe threat should remain
    isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are percolating in intensity, with
    increasing trends in coverage being gradual at best. Surface
    temperatures are reaching or exceeding 90 F in several locales,
    which has supported convective initiation thus far. 7.5-8.5 C/km 0-3
    km lapse rates are supporting up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, which would
    favor 45-60 mph wind gusts with any of the stronger thunderstorms
    that can sustain themselves. However, 19Z mesoanalysis and 18Z RAP
    forecasting soundings show relatively weak tropospheric vertical
    wind profiles and accompanying shear. As such, mainly short-lived, pulse-cellular storms should be the dominant mode of convection,
    with damaging gusts likely to be limited in areal coverage and
    longevity, precluding a WW issuance at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-M0ad5KbrxMcNYGbjlJifViKhOnewrWmgyjLHR7mPQmd5j7IO1hJck6OUrCl8PT9OpOJ-StA2= ylpcjh0otLcHInQMhw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35218267 36278009 36467855 36437745 36057718 35397737
    34697782 34037867 33707955 33698047 33638095 33848168
    34068206 34278242 35218267=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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