ACUS11 KWNS 021540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021540=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-021715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...The Red River vicinity from Southwest Oklahoma to
north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021540Z - 021715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near the Red River may strengthen
through early afternoon with a threat for severe wind/hail. Severe coverage/intensity remains uncertain, but will be monitored for
watch consideration if severe magnitude/coverage is greater than
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has persisted through the morning
from the Texas Panhandle to southwest Oklahoma. Area VWPs show a
moderate, but sustained low-level jet which has likely maintained
storms thus far. Heating has occurred south of this cluster with SPC mesoanalysis indicating CINH has eroded. Therefore, this cluster may
continue through the day with continued development/intensification
as it drifts southeast. Deep-layer shear is relatively weak (per
area VWPs) which may limit the overall severe weather potential.
However, the strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE and increasing)
should result in at least some large hail/severe wind threat into
the early afternoon.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fdzq-0nEI7AMYmR1smyA-S62Y8Z6yNNyUluD-JUDdqxbUNUnZmvkuem6AZn5snRDWKQwn9N_= H0EPp45FjwfguIgVF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34879990 35069905 34189728 33439687 32689724 33069883
33689998 34620010 34879990=20


=3D =3D =3D
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