ACUS11 KWNS 311924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311923=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311923Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm threat could evolve this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Several small, weakly rotating cells have developed
this afternoon across east-central MS, within a weakly capped and
moderately buoyant (MLCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg) environment.
While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, vertical shear is
somewhat enhanced by backed low-level flow near a retreating diffuse
baroclinic zone, and a transient supercell or two cannot be ruled
out, with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a brief
tornado.=20

Farther southwest, deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker south of the
warm front, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg and increasingly
warm/moist surface conditions could support locally damaging winds
as convection spreads northeastward out of Louisiana through the
afternoon.

..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LYzQ7rZkgUjrd2Euruk1ezCpaHsErE2MdW85SZtj3gZPv6OvH7PFVnJU2yHe65-B0ItacJBm= PCmYxTT91ofACqPwCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33218859 32948836 32438833 31918838 31538864 31388872
31118968 31339105 31979123 32769120 33269028 33348962
33318922 33218859=20


=3D =3D =3D
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