ACUS11 KWNS 270337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270337=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Northeast TX into Southwest/South-Central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 270337Z - 270530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast
Texas into central Arkansas. Very large hail is the primary risk,
although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated coverage may
preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture convergence is contributing to new
development near the weak cold front extending across the region.
The airmass to the south of the front is very moist and buoyant,
with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg. Strong
vertical shear is in place as well, with effective bulk shear from
50 to 60 kt. However, significant mid-level dry air is in place,
which will likely minimize the overall severe coverage. Even so, the
storms that do develop could be quite strong and may even be able to
attain supercellular characteristics. Very large hail is likely the
primary risk, but strong low-level instability (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE
over 200 J/kg) and low-level wind profiles that veer with height
suggest some tornado potential as well. Isolated coverage may
preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40D5yoiBfP2Pv3Yizq3EgRGD0ENa7PD2pk3WAQ5v0V8FZFa3TdZH-siNUYbEw7zOgzgcG-WMH= kdf6XDXOPoSkMnhIpE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33419510 34519276 33849199 32569373 32149506 32549545
33419510=20


=3D =3D =3D
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