ACUS11 KWNS 262247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262247=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-270015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Southern MO...Northwest/North-Central AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...320...

Valid 262247Z - 270015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319, 320 continues.

SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including tornadoes, very large hail up to 3" in diameter, and
strong gusts up to 70 mph, will persist from central Missouri into northwest/north-central AR.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within the open warm
sector across southern MO and northwest AR, ahead of the line of
storms along the cold front approaching for the northwest. The
triplet of supercells in south-central MO (i.e. Texas, Shannon, and
Howell Counties) have all shown a notable increase in updraft
intensity over the past half hour, with echo tops now over 50 kft in
each storm. Another supercell has developed quickly just ahead of
the primary line of storms across Pulaski and Phelps Counties.

The easternmost two storms also are likely undergoing the splitting
process, suggesting some additional strengthening and maturation is
possible once this process completes. The downstream airmass is very
unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating over 3500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Vertical shear is strong as well, with mesoanalysis
estimating effective bulk shear around 50 kt. Low-level flow is
somewhat veered, but strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE
over 150 J/kg) should still be more than sufficient for stretching
and potential tornadogenesis. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter
and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible in addition to tornadoes.

The lone supercell along the far western MO/AR border continues to
maintain its intensity, although it may now be trending towards a
more outflow-dominant structure. However, given the strong buoyancy
and robust vertical shear, some additional reorganizing is possible,
with an attendant threat for tornadoes once this reorganization
occurs. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to
70 mph remain possible with this storm as well.

..Mosier.. 05/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Dz0Si9g8HSr1zr8lFpNzOMB3z7buDftkTgwfjlj6xn7qhyCxQD7X490rdNtOfeL1LORHLcy_= FHVhmZOHGrmBAOOT0I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 37849067 36999036 36049193 35909318 36219433 37759224
37849067=20


=3D =3D =3D
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