ACUS11 KWNS 251841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251841=20
TXZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...parts of west-central into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 251841Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are expected to form over the next 1-2
hours along the dryline over west-central into parts of northwest
TX. Very large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an extremely moist air mass with
70s F dewpoints extending west toward the Snyder/Sweetwater area,
along a developing dryline. Strong heating will aid further
destabilization and CIN removal, as low-level convergence gradually
increase near the dryline.

Visible imagery already shows towers forming in this area,
suggesting at least isolated supercells will soon form. Extreme
instability as well as impressive mid to high level winds will
strongly favor very large and damaging hail. Although the primary
tornado risk is forecast north of this area later today, a couple
tornadoes appear likely with the southern supercells given favorable
storm mode, impressive updrafts, and gradually increasingly
low-level SRH through early evening.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jLRK2Jxj4csv8CfKMFhUG38ti7bu9jGrX4tPHoWnBoSBtmeLEkReyiqAlhHmmcEiw8b5hhzc= hv-6STDMJxLKvs7XeI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31080128 31790105 32460094 33610079 33770040 33779985
33729938 33549907 33339884 33079877 32329888 31359926
30589978 30450069 30770109 31080128=20


=3D =3D =3D
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