ACUS11 KWNS 230159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230158=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-230400-
Mesoscale Discussion 0905
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Areas affected...East Texas...Northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...
Valid 230158Z - 230400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will
likely continue through late evening from east Texas into northern
Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...A large MCS is currently ongoing from east Texas into
northern Louisiana and far southern Arkansas. The MCS is located
within a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across much of the Sabine River
Valley. In addition, the RAP shows a belt of strong mid-level flow
from north Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. This stronger flow is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at
Fort Polk, LA, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. RAP forecast
soundings nearby have steep mid-level lapse rates with veering winds
from the surface to near 700 mb. This should continue to support a
severe threat with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. Wind
damage will be the greatest threat, although isolated large hail
will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 05/23/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64TWCgrjA1r1SkSfEnXV5_JP7cr4HV4UcudyZNzTO8widTLjQRvpSOx3bmd81-rlpUSeuUxgw= YF0i9f-RsNWeEBVw_s$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31259274 31879204 32299178 32689177 32929196 33099223
33089264 32959287 32589335 32189417 31949512 31699551
31179562 30809543 30769452 30959356 31259274=20
=3D =3D =3D
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