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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0899

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 22 21:48:02 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 222147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222147=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0899
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Southern Arkansas...Far Northern
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

    Valid 222147Z - 222345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours
    from northeast Texas eastward into southern Arkansas and far
    northern Louisiana. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a tornado or two
    will be possible. A new watch is being issued for parts of the
    Ark-La-Tex.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows
    scattered strong to severe storms from northeast Texas into
    southwestern Arkansas, with a couple supercells ongoing. The storms
    are located near an axis of strong to extreme instability, where the
    RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition,
    the Little Rock and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the
    50 to 60 knot range. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex have
    700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This enviroment
    will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones
    greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the
    strongest of updrafts. Wind damage will be likely with supercells
    and the more intense line segments. Low-level shear will also be
    sufficient for a tornado or two.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SYx1E1M53R_q9J8lhVJqTmk0QM6LTjef7L0ldEVJ7I5tTO7Y1kNh0JncxtiYGZZ_0JdMWFcA= X-cr0v5h5o0_cOAnXo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 34069276 34149188 34039140 33739123 33309123 32979137
    32739165 32639220 32619362 32759526 33109554 33489516
    33689460 33869389 34069276=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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