ACUS11 KWNS 212055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212055=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212055Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with
elevated thunderstorms moving into west-central/north-central
Arkansas. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have had a recent increase in
intensity. While the environment ahead of this activity continues to destabilize slowly, it is not clear whether this activity will be
able to become surface based in the near future. Strong effective
shear and sufficient buoyancy will promote some risk of large hail
as well as isolated strong/damaging winds. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored as the need for a watch is not certain in
the short term.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7m8JeggZ_-FAdwMOMjPAKxh8RRQc2Wbmc_0pAA3YcPoUmS0DFOZXkL4CmydyixbZQAfRpf4SZ= nrwr5X2JgIRdUfLOs4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36019340 36399246 36579186 36589130 36449085 35699129
34979242 34419332 34469384 34859407 36019340=20


=3D =3D =3D
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