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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 19 20:51:24 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 192051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192050=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0835
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

    Areas affected...Western NE...Southwest SD...extreme northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

    Valid 192050Z - 192215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail and severe gusts should increase into
    late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
    across the NE Panhandle into northeast CO this afternoon, with some
    increase also recently noted into southwest SD and extreme
    west-central WY. Sufficient deep-layer shear (effective shear of 40+
    kt) and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail
    threat with ongoing discrete cells from northeast CO into the NE
    Panhandle, with some additional discrete cell development possible
    into southwest SD. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any
    sustained supercell, especially over northeast CO where multiple
    surface boundaries are in place.=20

    With time, some clustering of storms will be possible as outflows
    consolidate, leading to an increase in severe-wind potential late
    this afternoon into early evening, especially in areas where
    stronger heating and deeper mixing have occurred this afternoon.

    ..Dean.. 05/19/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FqFFlOTc6ry0w-F_Ui-tCukLZHxcmy-ocOt3t6GaJAd_aOqfwIYeDDlBXn-ZxFCxJK7vpAkH= -DZtv6IK6ea9fuF11c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40740324 43990406 44610280 44640193 44230119 43700104
    41790122 41450130 41080139 40730149 40160196 39690332
    40740324=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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