ACUS11 KWNS 170309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170309=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-170515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

Valid 170309Z - 170515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues with surging squall line.
Some tornado risk also exists along this line.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived MCS continues its forward propagation across
southern LA within a strong low-level warm advection regime. LLJ has
increased markedly this evening ahead of the surging bow, and 0-3km
SRH, just downstream at HDC, is in excess of 600 m2/s2. This complex
is expected to progress along the northern instability gradient,
across the remainder of southeast LA with an attendant damaging wind
threat. While the primary storm mode will remain an MCS, embedded
circulations along the surging bow pose some risk for tornadoes.

..Darrow.. 05/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xJULnMIQcxW6aDwlOqCUNKO07-KxkSO6FM7jpqRzCe_DNiLrZXouBCkdz2kJBaD9yjNxLoBv= 8Bdy7lGnZ8BAICP4Z8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 31209197 30268882 28408882 29329197 31209197=20


=3D =3D =3D
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