US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change

Date:
February 4, 2022
Source:
American Geophysical Union
Summary:
An 8% increase in summer air conditioning demand can be expected in
the U.S. when the global average temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This climate driven increase
is likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if
states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to
a new study of household- level demand.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use
in the United States that is likely to cause prolonged blackouts during
peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.


==========================================================================
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5
degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6
degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the
United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth's Future, AGU's journal
for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our
planet and its inhabitants.

Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its
2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree Celsius threshold by the end of the century.

Previous research has examined the impacts of higher future temperatures
on annual electricity consumption or daily peak load for specific
cities or states. The new study is the first to project residential air conditioning demand on a household basis at a wide scale. It incorporates observed and predicted air temperature and heat, humidity and discomfort indices with air conditioning use by statistically representative
households across the contiguous United States, collected by the
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2005-2019.

The new study projected changing usage from climate influence only, and
did not consider possible population increases, changes in affluence,
behavior or other factors known to affect air conditioning demand.

"We tried to isolate just the impact of climate change," said Renee
Obringer, an environmental engineer at Penn State University and lead
author of the new study. "If nothing changes, if we, as a society,
refuse to adapt, if we don't match the efficiency demands, what would
that mean?" Technological improvements in the efficiency of home air conditioning appliances could supply the additional cooling needed to
achieve current comfort levels after 2.0 degrees global temperature rise without increased demand for electricity, the new study found. Increased efficiency of 1% to 8% would be required, depending on existing state
standards and the expected demand increase, with Arkansas, Louisiana
and Oklahoma on the high end.



========================================================================== "It's a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can't keep doing what we
are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades,
simply because of the summertime air conditioning," said Susanne Benz,
a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax,
Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study.

Exceeding capacity The heaviest air conditioning use with the greatest
risk for overloading the power grid comes during heat waves, which
also present the highest risk to health. Electricity generation tends
to be below peak during heat waves as well, further reducing capacity,
Obringer said.

Without enough capacity to meet demand, energy utilities may have to
stage rolling blackouts during heat waves to avoid grid failure, like California's energy providers did in August 2020 during an extended
period of record heat sometimes topping 117 degrees Fahrenheit.

"We've seen this in California already -- state power suppliers had to institute blackouts because they couldn't provide the needed electricity," Obringer said. The state attributed 599 deaths to the heat, but the true
toll may have been closer to 3,900.



==========================================================================
The consequences of cascading electrical grid failures are likely to
impact already vulnerable populations, including low income, non-white
and older residents, first, Obringer noted.

"When they say there's going to be two weeks where you don't have cooling
on average -- in reality, some people will have cooling. Disadvantaged
people will have less cooling," Benz said.

Regional differences The new study predicted the largest increases
in kilowatt-hours of electricity demand in the already hot south and
southwest. If all Arizona households were to increase air conditioning
use by the estimated 6% needed at 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming,
for example, amounting to 30 kilowatt-hours per month, this would place
an additional 54.5 million kilowatt-hours of demand on the power grid
monthly.

Some of the highest percentage increases over current demand can be
expected in Midwestern states, which could strain energy capacity in
the region. The added demand of global temperature rise from 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2.0 degrees Celsius could triple demand in Indiana and Ohio, underlining the importance of mitigation to limit temperature increases, Obringer said.

special promotion Explore the latest scientific research on sleep and
dreams in this free online course from New Scientist -- Sign_up_now_>>> ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by American_Geophysical_Union. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Related Multimedia:
* Charts_and_maps_of_household_air_conditioning_use ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Renee Obringer, Roshanak Nateghi, Debora Maia‐Silva, Sayanti
Mukherjee, Vineeth CR, Douglas Brent McRoberts, Rohini Kumar.

Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across
the United States Under a Warming Climate. Earth's Future, 2022;
10 (1) DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002434 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220204093124.htm

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