Without strong mitigation measures, climate change will increase temperature-attributable mortality in Europe
Date:
July 8, 2021
Source:
Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
Summary:
If global warming is not curbed, the increase in heat-related
deaths will outstrip the decline in cold-related mortality,
especially in the Mediterranean Basin, a new study concludes.
FULL STORY ========================================================================== Various studies have suggested that global warming will lead to a
decrease in cold-attributable mortality and an increase in deaths caused
by heat. Now, a new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by the "la Caixa" Foundation, has concluded that, if strong mitigation measures are not implemented immediately,
overall temperature- related mortality in Europe will increase in the
coming decades. According to the new study, published in The Lancet
Planetary Health, the decline in cold- attributable deaths will not
offset the expected rapid increase in heat-related mortality.
========================================================================== After analysing mortality and temperature data recorded in 16 European countries between 1998 and 2012, the researchers concluded that more
than 7% of all deaths registered during this period were attributable
to temperature. Cold temperatures had a greater impact on mortality than
warm temperatures by a factor of 10.
However, projections based on epidemiological modelling indicated that,
if effective mitigation measures are not introduced immediately, this
trend could be reversed by the middle of the century, leading to a sharp increase in heat- attributable mortality.
Using the data from 1998-2012 as a baseline, the team combined four
climate models to make projections through the end of this century under
three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
"All of the models show a progressive increase in temperatures and, consequently, a decrease in cold-attributable mortality and an increase in heat-attributable deaths," explained ISGlobal researcher E`rica Marti'nez,
lead author of the study. "The difference between the scenarios lies in
the rate at which heat-related deaths increase. The data suggest that
the total number of temperature-attributable deaths will stabilise and
even decrease in the coming years, but that this will be followed by
a very sharp increase, which could occur sometime between the middle
and the end of the century, depending on greenhouse gas emissions."
Researcher Marcos Quijal, co-lead author of the study, commented:
"In recent decades, warming has occurred at a faster rate in Europe
than any other continent. The incidence of this phenomenon is uneven,
with Mediterranean countries being more vulnerable than the rest. Our
models also project a disproportionate increase in heat-attributable
mortality in Mediterranean countries, due to a significant rise in summer temperatures and this greater vulnerability to heat." The projections
indicate a very large increase in deaths due to extreme heat.
In fact, under the highest-emission scenario and assuming no adaptation,
deaths attributable to extreme heat would outstrip cold-attributable
mortality.
"Our findings underscore the urgency of adopting global mitigation
measures, since they will not be effective if they are only adopted
in specific countries or regions," commented ISGlobal researcher Joan Ballester, last author of the study. "Moreover, one decisive factor
not included in our models is our capacity to adapt to new scenarios,
which is already helping to reduce our vulnerability to temperatures."
The study was carried out within the framework of EARLY-ADAPT, a
project funded by the European Research Council (ERC) that analyses
the environmental, socio- economic and demographic factors involved in adaptation to climate change.
EARLY-ADAPT aims to improve its projections by analysing the social
factors and inequalities in adaptation to climate change and incorporating these factors into its climate and epidemiological models.
This is the first study in this field of research that is based on
population- wide epidemiological data and models rather than being
restricted to urban populations. The countries analysed were Austria,
Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany,
Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Barcelona_Institute_for_Global_Health_(ISGlobal). Note: Content may be
edited for style and length.
========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. E`rica Marti'nez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak,
Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, Franc,ois R Herrmann, Xavier
Rodo', Joan Ballester. Projections of temperature-attributable
mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous
regions in 16 countries.
The Lancet Planetary Health, 2021; 5 (7): e446 DOI:
10.1016/S2542-5196 (21)00150-9 ==========================================================================
Link to news story:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/07/210707185327.htm
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