Future of winter: Low emissions vital to slow warming

Date:
February 3, 2022
Source:
University of New Hampshire
Summary:
Winters are warming faster than summers in North America,
impacting everything from ecosystems to the economy. Global
climate models indicate that this trend will continue in future
winters but there is a level of uncertainty around the magnitude
of warming. Researchers focused on the role of carbon dioxide
emissions in this equation -- looking at the effects of both high
and low levels of carbon dioxide emissions on future climate warming
scenarios -- and found that a reduction in emissions could preserve
almost three weeks of snow cover and below freezing temperatures.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Winters are warming faster than summers in North America, impacting
everything from ecosystems to the economy. Global climate models indicate
that this trend will continue in future winters but there is a level of uncertainty around the magnitude of warming. Researchers at the University
of New Hampshire focused on the role of carbon dioxide emissions in this equation -- looking at the effects of both high and low levels of carbon dioxide emissions on future climate warming scenarios -- and found that
a reduction in emissions could preserve almost three weeks of snow cover
and below freezing temperatures.


==========================================================================
"The local ski hills of New England raised me to love winter and snow,"
said Elizabeth Burakowski, research assistant professor in UNH's Earth
Systems Research Center. "But winters are vital to all of us and taking
serious action now to limit, or slow, the warming of winter could mean preserving many core purposes of cold weather including providing more
winter protection for woodland animals, preventing the spread of invasive forest pests and increasing the ability of ski resorts to make snow -- protecting the economy by maintaining the area's multimillion-dollar
recreation industry." In their study, recently published in the journal Northeastern Naturalist, the researchers analyzed 29 different climate
models to determine the effect of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and
other heat-trapping gasses, into the atmosphere. At the current pace, by mid-century (2040-2069) ski areas in North America will face up to a 50% decline in days where conditions would be favorable to make snow. Limiting emissions could slow that to only a 10 to 30% decline in the number of snowmaking days. Colder days (below freezing) and preserving snow cover
is also critical for providing winter habitats and protection for animals
like porcupines and martens, a carnivorous member of the weasel family. At
the current rate of warming, the researchers found that deep snowpacks
could become increasingly short-lived, decreasing from the historical two months of subnivium, or beneath the snow, habitat to less than one month.

The researchers say that maintaining a cold winter environment is also associated with greater soil carbon storage and helps prevent the spread
of invasive and very destructive forests pests such as Southern Pine
Beetle, which was recently detected as far north as New Hampshire and
Maine by UNH researchers.

"Emissions scenarios play a critical role in the loss of winter
conditions, indicating a potential doubling of the loss of cold days and
snow cover under higher emissions," said Alexandra Contosta, research
assistant professor at UNH's Earth Systems Research Center. "These
changes could disrupt and forever change some very significant social and ecological systems that have historically relied on cold, snowy winters
for habitat, water resources, forest health, local economies, cultural practices and human wellbeing." Historically, between 1980-2005, the
number of snow-covered days in the Northeast was 95 days. Under the low emissions scenario, that would be reduced to 72 days -- under the high emissions scenario there would only be 56 days.

Historically, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Connecticut could expect to
see 20- 80 days of snow cover per season but by the end of the century,
under the higher emissions scenario, they are more likely to have a
snow-free winter.

Co-authors include Danielle Grogan, also at UNH; Sarah Nelson, Appalachian Mountain Club; Sarah Garlick, Hubbard Brook Research Foundation; and
Nora Casson, University of Winnipeg.

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) Ecosystems and Society Project (EPS-1101245).

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_New_Hampshire. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Elizabeth A. Burakowski, Alexandra R. Contosta, Danielle Grogan,
Sarah J.

Nelson, Sarah Garlick, and Nora Casson. Future of Winter in
Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and
Snow Loss that will Impact Ecosystems and Communities. Northeastern
Naturalist, 2022 [abstract] ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220203122944.htm

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