Pioneering research forecasts climate change set to send costs of
flooding soaring

Date:
January 31, 2022
Source:
University of Bristol
Summary:
Climate change could result in the financial toll of flooding
rising by more than a quarter in the United States by 2050 -- and
disadvantaged communities will bear the biggest brunt, according
to new research.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Climate change could result in the financial toll of flooding rising by
more than a quarter in the United States by 2050 -- and disadvantaged communities will bear the biggest brunt, according to new research.


==========================================================================
The University of Bristol-led study, published today in Nature Climate
Change, deployed advanced modelling techniques to make the colossal calculations, which forecasted average annual flood losses would increase
by 26.4% from US$32 billion currently to US$40.6 billion in less than
30 years.

By analysing nation-wide property asset data and detailed flood
projections, the team of leading international flood risk scientists
developed for the first time a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment
of flood risk in the US. The estimates of financial loss, which include
damage to homes, businesses and their contents, were based on 2021
dollar values so the actual numbers would likely be much bigger factoring
in inflation.

While the research reveals poorer communities with a proportionally
larger white population face the most danger at present, future growth
in flood risk will have a greater impact on African American communities
on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

Predicted population change was also shown to have a have a huge effect
on flood risk, resulting in four-fold increases compared to the impact
of climate change alone and sending costs further spiralling.

Lead author Dr Oliver Wing, Honorary Research Fellow at the university's
Cabot Institute for the Environment, said: "Climate change combined with shifting populations present a double whammy of flood risk danger and
the financial implications are staggering.

"Typical risk models rely on historical data which doesn't capture
projected climate change or offer sufficient detail. Our sophisticated techniques using state-of-the-science flood models give a much more
accurate picture of future flooding and how populations will be affected.

"The mapping clearly indicates Black communities will be
disproportionately affected in a warming world, in addition to the poorer
White communities which predominantly bear the historical risk. Both of
these findings are of significant concern. The research is a call to
action for adaptation and mitigation work to be stepped up to reduce
the devastating financial impact flooding wreaks on people's lives."
The research was carried out in partnership with experts from universities
in New York, California, and Philadelphia.

Co-author Professor Paul Bates CBE FRS, Professor of Hydrology at
the university's Cabot Institute for the Environment and School of
Geographical Sciences, said: "Current flood risk in western society
is already unacceptably high, yet climate and population change
threaten to inflate these losses significantly. The relatively
short timescales over which this increase will take place mean
we cannot rely on decarbonisation to reduce the risk so we have
to adapt better, both to the situation now and for the future."
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may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Oliver E. J. Wing, William Lehman, Paul D. Bates, Christopher
C. Sampson,
Niall Quinn, Andrew M. Smith, Jeffrey C. Neal, Jeremy
R. Porter, Carolyn Kousky. Inequitable patterns of US flood
risk in the Anthropocene. Nature Climate Change, 2022; DOI:
10.1038/s41558-021-01265-6 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220131122152.htm

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