Suitable growing regions for coffee, cashews, and avocados predicted to
shift as Earth warms
First-of-its-kind analysis suggests declines in land suitability in most
major producing countries

Date:
January 26, 2022
Source:
PLOS
Summary:
A new analysis predicts that, as climate change progresses, the most
suitable regions for growing coffee arabica, cashews, and avocados
will decline in some of the main countries that produce these crops.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new analysis predicts that, as climate change progresses, the most
suitable regions for growing coffee arabica, cashews, and avocados will
decline in some of the main countries that produce these crops. Roman
Gru"ter and colleagues at Zurich University of Applied Sciences,
Switzerland, present these findings in the open-access journalPLOS ONEon January 26, 2022.


========================================================================== Coffee, cashews, and avocados are important crops for consumers and
for tropical small-scale farmers around the world. Extensive research
suggests that climate change will reduce suitability for growing
coffee arabica--the dominant coffee species--in most regions where it
is currently grown. However, such studies have not considered land and
soil characteristics that could also impact suitability. Meanwhile,
no studies have addressed how climate change will impact avocado and
cashew suitability at a global scale.

To address these knowledge gaps, Gru"ter and colleagues combined climate
change projections and soil factors to computationally model and predict
how suitable different regions worldwide will be for growing coffee,
cashews, and avocados in 2050. They used projections from 14 global
climate models under three different future emission scenarios and
incorporated land and soil requirements for the crops, such as pH,
texture, and slope.

The analysis predicts that some regions will become more suitable and some
less suitable for each crop. Coffee is the most susceptible of the three,
with predicted declines in suitability in all major producing regions, including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia. For cashews, highly suitable regions are predicted to decrease in some major producing
countries, including India, Co^te d'Ivoire, and Benin. Suitable areas
for avocados will also decline for some major producers, such as the
Dominican Republic, Peru, and Indonesia.

Meanwhile, areas suitable for all three crops may expand at higher
altitudes and latitudes, especially for cashews and avocados. Areas with greater future suitability are located in regions such as the United
States, Argentina, China, and East Africa.

These findings suggest the need for climate change adaptations in major producing countries, such as breeding for varieties adapted to higher temperatures or drought. Strategies will also be needed to mitigate the environmental impact of any expansion to new locations.

The authors add: "The study presents the first global
assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado
suitability. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for
cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main
producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by PLOS. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


==========================================================================


Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144004.htm

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