With a warming climate, atmospheric rivers will likely bring record-
breaking precipitation events to mountainous parts of East Asia such as the Japanese Alps, according to a new University of Tsukuba modeling study

Date:
January 18, 2022
Source:
University of Tsukuba
Summary:
Extreme rainfall events associated with atmospheric rivers, narrow
bands transporting large amounts of moisture in the atmosphere,
are becoming more frequent and severe in mountainous parts of
East Asia as the climate changes. According to global and regional
climate models comparing historical trends with a future scenario
of 4 degrees of warming of global-mean surface air, these events
are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future,
especially in the Japanese Alps region.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
It's been becoming more and more clear that global warming means more
than just warmer temperatures. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense in many different parts of the world, creating
an urgent need to predict and prepare for these changes.


==========================================================================
In a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a research team
led by the University of Tsukuba has reported on model results predicting
more frequent and severe extreme rainfall events over East Asia caused by
a weather phenomenon called "atmospheric rivers." As the name suggests, atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated water vapor
flowing through the atmosphere. When one of these bands meets a barrier,
such as a mountain range, it can produce extreme levels of rainfall
or snowfall.

Portions of East Asia have experienced damaging extreme events like this frequently in the last decade, sometimes with severe societal costs,
and understanding how this phenomenon is likely to develop in the future
as the climate continues to change is crucial.

"To investigate the behavior of atmospheric rivers and extreme
precipitation over East Asia under projected climate warming, we used high-resolution global atmospheric circulation model simulations as well
as regional climate model downscaling simulations," study first author Professor Yoichi Kamae explains.

"We compared simulations based on historical meteorological data from 1951
to 2010 with future simulations based on the year 2090 under a climate
scenario with 4 degrees Celsius of warming of the global-mean surface
air temperature." The future simulations predicted strengthened water
vapor transport and increased precipitation, including unprecedented, record-breaking rainfall events in parts of East Asia, greatly affected
by atmospheric river phenomena.

The greatest amounts of atmospheric river-related precipitation occurred
on the southern and western slopes of mountains in East Asia, including
in Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and northeastern China, with
the greatest rainfall on the southwestern slopes of the Japanese Alps.

Because of computational limitations in integrating the models, the geographical scope of this study was limited to East Asia. However,
according to Professor Kamae, "Our findings are likely also applicable to
other regions of the mid-latitudes where interactions between atmospheric rivers and steep mountains play a major role in precipitation, such as in western North America and Europe. These regions may also experience more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events as the climate warms." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Tsukuba. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Y. Kamae, Y. Imada, H. Kawase, W. Mei. Atmospheric Rivers Bring More
Frequent and Intense Extreme Rainfall Events Over East Asia
Under Global Warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 DOI:
10.1029/2021GL09603 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220118104112.htm

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