Higher risk of temperature-related death if global warming exceeds 2DEGC


Date:
March 7, 2022
Source:
University College London
Summary:
The death rate linked to extreme temperatures will increase
significantly under global warming of 2DEGC, finds a new
report. Temperature-related mortality -- where a death is
directly linked to climate temperature - - in England and Wales
during the hottest days of the year will increase by 42% under a
warming scenario of 2DEGC from pre-industrial levels. This means
an increase from present-day levels of around 117 deaths per day,
averaged over the 10 hottest days of the year, to around 166 deaths
per day. The findings underline the importance of keeping global
warming levels to below 2DEGC.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
The death rate linked to extreme temperatures will increase significantly
under global warming of 2DEGC, finds a report by researchers from UCL
and the University of Reading.


========================================================================== Temperature-related mortality -- where a death is directly linked to
climate temperature -- in England and Wales during the hottest days of
the year will increase by 42% under a warming scenario of 2DEGC from pre-industrial levels.

This means an increase from present-day levels of around 117 deaths per
day, averaged over the 10 hottest days of the year, to around 166 deaths
per day.

The findings underline the importance of keeping global warming levels
to below 2DEGC.

At current global warming levels of around 1.21DEGC we see a slight
decrease in temperature-related mortality in winter and a minimal net
effect in summer, meaning that overall, at this level of warming we see
a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality rate.

In the paper, published in Environmental Research Letters, the team
examined the impact of climate change on temperature-related mortality
rates in England and Wales, focusing on the risk from heat in summer and
cold in winter. They found that as the global mean temperature increases, temperature-related mortality in summer will increase at a much faster, non-linear rate.

The rate of increase particularly speeds up at 2DEGC of warming, with a
much higher risk appearing beyond 2.5DEGC. The researchers say that 3DEGC warming could lead to a 75% increase in mortality risk during heatwaves.

When plotted on a graph, the relationship between temperature
and mortality is roughly u-shaped, meaning that at extremely high
temperatures, which the population is not used to, the mortality risk
increases sharply for each degree rise of daily mean temperature.



==========================================================================
The rate in winter will continue to decrease, although this doesn't take
side effects of extreme weather -- such as storms -- into account.

Lead author Dr Katty Huang (UCL Civil, Environmental & Geomatic
Engineering) said: "The increase in mortality risk under current warming
levels is mainly notable during heatwaves, but with further warming,
we would see risk rise on average summer days in addition to escalating
risks during heatwaves. What this means is that we shouldn't expect
past trends of impact per degree of warming to apply in the future. One
degree of global warming beyond 2DEGC would have a much more severe
impact on health in England and Wales than one degree warming from pre-industrial levels, with implications for how the NHS can cope."
In England and Wales, temperature is associated with around 9% of total population mortality, meaning that 9% of all deaths during 2021 could
be associated with the temperature. Most of those deaths are related to
the side effects of cold weather.

The team analysed the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) with data
on present-day temperature and mortality in order to predict changes in temperature-related mortality relative to degrees of global warming.

In order to isolate the effects of global warming on mortality risk, the researchers looked at the potential impact for the current population,
without taking into account future changes such as average age and
health conditions.

Project lead Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)
said: "As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts report
recently showed, it is increasingly common to examine how different
levels of mean global warming raise the risk of significant harm to
people and society. Our study shows that because death rates will go up significantly if countries experience very high temperatures, limiting
the average global rise in temperatures is likely to have substantial
benefits for the overall health of the population." The research was
supported by the UK Climate Resilience programme, UKRI, the Met Office
and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_College_London. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Wan Ting Katty Huang, Isobel Braithwaite, Andrew Charlton-Perez,
Christophe Sarran, Ting Sun. Non-linear response of
temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England
and Wales. Environmental Research Letters, 2022; 17 (3): 034017
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220307082322.htm

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