Optimal lifting of COVID-19 restrictions would follow pace of
vaccination, study suggests
High vaccination rate also needed to maximize freedoms and minimize new
waves of infection

Date:
September 2, 2021
Source:
PLOS
Summary:
A new analysis suggests that, in order to boost freedoms and
protect against overwhelming new waves of COVID-19, the pace at
which restrictions to reduce spread are lifted must be directly
tied to the pace of vaccination.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new analysis suggests that, in order to boost freedoms and protect
against overwhelming new waves of COVID-19, the pace at which restrictions
to reduce spread are lifted must be directly tied to the pace of
vaccination. Simon Bauer, Viola Priesemann, and colleagues of the Max
Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Germany, present
these findings in the open- access journal PLOS Computational Biology.


==========================================================================
More than a year after the COVID-19 pandemic began, vaccination
programs now hold promise to ease many burdens caused by the disease
-- including necessary restrictions that have had negative social and
economic consequences. Much research has focused on vaccine allocation
and prioritization, and optimal ways to control spread. However, how to
execute a smooth transition between an unprotected population to eventual population immunity remained an open question.

To address that question, Bauer and colleagues applied mathematical
modeling to epidemiological and vaccination data from Germany, France,
the U.K., and other European countries. Specifically, they quantified
the pace at which restrictions could be lifted during vaccine rollout
in order to mitigate the risk of rebound COVID-19 waves that overwhelm intensive care units.

After considering various plausible scenarios, the researchers concluded
that further severe waves can only be avoided if restrictions are lifted
no faster than the pace dictated by vaccination progress, and that there
is basically no gain in freedom if one eases restrictions too quickly. The findings suggest that, even after 80 percent of the adult population
has been vaccinated, novel, more infectious variants could trigger a
new wave and overwhelm intensive care units if lifting all restrictions.

"In such an event, restrictions would quickly have to be reinstated, thus quickly vanishing the mirage of freedom," Priesemann says. "Furthermore,
an early lift would have high morbidity and mortality costs. Meanwhile, relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination shows almost the same
progress in 'freedom' while maintaining low incidence." The researchers
say their findings suggest that, despite public pressure, policymakers
should not rush relaxation of restrictions, and a high vaccination rate -- especially among high-risk populations -- is necessary. Further research
will be needed to design optimal scenarios from a global perspective.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by PLOS. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Simon Bauer, Sebastian Contreras, Jonas Dehning, Matthias Linden,
Emil
Iftekhar, Sebastian B. Mohr, Alvaro Olivera-Nappa, Viola Priesemann.

Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom
and guards against further COVID-19 waves. PLOS Computational
Biology, 2021; 17 (9): e1009288 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009288 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210902174719.htm

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