How politics, society, and tech shape the path of climate change
The social and political determinants of global warming in the 21st
Century

Date:
February 16, 2022
Source:
University of California - Davis
Summary:
Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and
effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies, and how
political institutions respond to public pressure are all important
determinants of the degree to which the climate will change over
the 21st century, according to a new study.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Politics and society largely dictate climate policy ambitions and
therefore the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, yet climate change
models and projections rarely include political and social drivers. A
study from the University of California, Davis, simulated 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories to identify relevant variables
within the climate-social system that could impact climate change in
this century.


==========================================================================
The study, published today in the journal Nature, indicates that public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of
climate mitigation and technologies, and how political institutions
respond to public pressure are all important determinants of the degree
to which the climate will change over the 21st century.

"Small changes in some variables, like the responsiveness of the
political system or the level of public support for climate policy,
can sometimes trigger a cascade of feedbacks that result in a tipping
point and drastically change the emissions trajectory over the century,"
said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor with the UC
Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. "We're trying to understand what it is about these fundamental socio-political-technical
systems that determine emissions." Coupling climate and policy The
authors note that the biggest uncertainty in understanding climate impacts
over the long term is what emissions will be in the future. Most climate
and energy modeling treats policy as something external to the models. But
to prepare for climate impacts, adaptation planners need to understand
the probability of different temperature outcomes for future decades.

For this study, the authors modeled 100,000 possible future pathways of
climate policy and greenhouse gas emissions. They used an integrated, multidisciplinary model that connected data across a wide range of
social, political and technical fields. Such scenarios included public
and political support, social perceptions of climate change, how quickly collective action or carbon pricing responds to changes in public opinion
and other inputs.



==========================================================================
The pathways fell into five clusters, with warming in 2100 varying
between 1.8 to 3.6 degrees Celsius above the 1880-1910 average, but with
a strong probability of warming between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius at the
end of the century.

Key drivers The results indicate that people's perceptions and social
groups, the improvements in mitigation technology over time, and the responsiveness of political institutions are key drivers of future
emissions, even more so than individual actions.

The study is not prescriptive. Rather, it examines what it is about the
social- political-technical system that determines future emissions,
integrates that information into existing climate models, and connects
them across individual, community, national and global scales.

"Understanding how societies respond to environmental change, and how
policy arises from social and political systems, is a key question in sustainability science," Moore said. "I see this as pushing that research,
and also being useful for climate adaptation and impacts planning."
The study's co-authors are Katherine Lacasse of Rhode Island College,
Katharine Mach of the University of Miami, Yoon Ah Shin of Arizona State University, Louis Gross of University of Tennessee, and Brian Beckage
of University of Vermont.

The study was supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis
Center under funding from the National Science Foundation.

special promotion Explore the latest scientific research on sleep and
dreams in this free online course from New Scientist -- Sign_up_now_>>> ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
University_of_California_-_Davis. Original written by Kat Kerlin. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Frances C. Moore, Katherine Lacasse, Katharine J. Mach, Yoon
Ah Shin,
Louis J. Gross, Brian Beckage. Determinants of emissions
pathways in the coupled climate-social system. Nature, 2022; DOI:
10.1038/s41586-022- 04423-8 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220216112307.htm

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